Growers can expect to see apple crops rebound slightly over last year’s much below-average crop. Forecasts presented at the 2003 U.S. Apple Association (USApple) Outlook, however, still put the numbers for the 2003 apple crop below the five-year national average.
All regions of the country are expecting a larger crop except for the West, giving 2003 a total expected increase of 6% over 2002 and an 11% decline from the five-year average.
“This year’s crop will be the second shortest crop, based on these estimates, after last year’s short crop, since 1988,” Jeff Crist, master of ceremonies for the Outlook, said. “We can expect high quality, good size and very manageable quantity.”
Crist, from Crist Bros. Orchards in Walden, N.Y., said that he is expecting a good marketing year for the nation’s apples as well – despite the changes in the apple-marketing arena.
“We have the ability to market this crop in an orderly fashion and in a wise fashion,” he said. Crist also serves as secretary/treasurer for USApple.
Growers in each region echoed the sentiments of fruit quality of the national board. All regions said they are expecting good fruit quality.
In the East, predictions are showing a crop of 52.5 million bushels – up 23% from 2002 but down 5% from the five-year average.
“In general, the feeling these days is that we have a very strong crop – not a boom crop,” Brian Nicholson said of New York and New England’s crops.
Nicholson, from Red Jacket Orchards in Geneva, N.Y., did make room for variation in the prediction numbers and actual crop size for his area.
In Appalachian area, Fred Hess said they are looking forward to a good crop – courtesy of a good summer.
“What a difference a year makes,” he said. “I can happily report that this summer has been very, very different (than last year).”
Midwest growers are looking at a crop size twice the crop in 2002. Forecasts place the crop at 31 million bushels – a 62% increase over last year. The Midwest is also the only region expecting to outdo five-year averages. Pat Chase, who presented the Midwest figures, said they are looking forward to a banner crop at 5% above the five-year average.
“The Midwest could be summed up in the statement: ‘We’re back after a very dismal crop last year,’” Chase, from Jack Brown Produce, said. “We’re real optimistic about the crop in the Midwest. It will be a banner crop with nice quality fruit.”
Chase also said that the Midwest – Michigan in particular – has experienced a rise in new technology and equipment that will help the region with this year’s crop.
“One thing that’s happened is a big explosion in the amount of new equipment for packing,” he said. “It’s a big upgrade in our capability to pack our crop.”
The Midwest is also seeing a “fair amount” of new plantings, and a wide spread of varieties.
The West is the only region in the country facing an even smaller crop than last year. At 132.7 million bushels, they are looking at a crop 6% smaller than last year and 16% smaller than the five-year average.
“We have bottomed out,” Kenton Kidd, president of the California Apple Commission, said of the size of this year’s crop in California. “I don’t think we’ll see it drop off or grow significantly either.
Kidd said July had 23 days that were over the triple digits, which slowed apple growth somewhat with a bit of stoppage on Galas.
California is looking at a crop of 10 million bushels – down 11% from last year and 37% from the five-year average.
“It will be a good season in California and an interesting season – we may see Conan the Governor,” Kidd said.
In Washington state, USApple is predicting a crop of 116.7 million bushels, which is down 5% from last year and 12% from the five-year average.
“We have a very clean crop,” Larry Olsen, of Olsen Brothers in Prosser, Wash., said. “We haven’t had any weather problems – definitely better size than we had last year, if we get good weather in the next month.”
Weather from last winter has already affected this crop, Dan Kelly, assistant manager of the Washington Growers Clearing House Association, said.
“A late freeze last fall had an effect on this year’s cro0p,” he said. “But this year’s crop looks good and pack outs are going to be near normal; overall, we’re looking at a good crop.”
