The Fruit Growers News - September 2001


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World Apple Forecast Down as U.S. Pays Closer Attention

By Karen Gentry Associate Editor

As world economies become intertwined, apple industry representatives in the U.S. pay closer attention to the outlook for apples in foreign countries, as well as export markets.

Many attendees of the recent U.S. Apple Association (USApple) 2001 Apple Crop Outlook and Marketing Conference in Chicago represented foreign interests including Chile, Brazil, Peru, Austria, China, Germany, Mexico, Canada, New Zealand, Taiwan, England, Netherlands, Argentina and France.

U.S. trade outlook
Based on USDA’s forecast of 228.9 million bushels, USApple expects apple exports to decrease to 28 million bushels, 29% less than the 39.3 million bushels exported in 2000. This decrease is due in part to a predicted decrease in fresh apples from Washington state, which is expected to raise prices in the domestic apple market. The combined effect of greater domestic shipments and higher export prices is likely to reduce exports.

USApple also forecasts imports of apples into the United States at 8.7 million fresh-market cartons, a 1% decrease from 2000. Mexico, Taiwan, Canada and Hong Kong were the four leading export markets for U.S. apples last year.

European crop outlook
Production in the major European apple-growing countries is forecast at 393.5 million bushels, 9% less than 2000 and 4% less than the five-year average. Production in France is expected to be down 10%, Germany down 21%, while production in Spain is forecast to increase 26% compared to 2000. Production from the United Kingdom is expected to increase 11% while Poland is expected to increase 10%. Hungary is expected to produce 367,000 metric tons, a 47% decrease from 2000.

Golden Delicious is the top variety in Europe with a forecast of 136 million bushels. Jonagold, a popular European variety, is forecast to decrease 27% from 2000. Gala production has increased significantly since 1993, and is expected to reach 36.1 million bushels in 2001, according to USApple.

China
For the first time in 15 years apple production in China is expected to decrease, according to Michael Choi, from the Zhonglu America Corporation in Commerce, Calif. His company opened the first apple juice concentrate factory in China in 1982. Choi addressed attendees of the outlook conference and said forecasted production in 2001 is 27 million (1.485 billion bushels) metric tons. He said growers in China experienced a severe drought and cold weather during bloom.

Since 1996 China has increased its apple production by an average of 19.8% per year. Choi said acreage in China has decreased since 1996 when it reached peak production. He told attendees that acreage in China will decrease slowly. He said the apple juice concentrate industry in China will be reshuffled until there’s only a handful of major player, probably less than 10 companies.

“China will stay strong in the world apple and apple juice concentrate industry, despite the trade barriers,” Choi said.

Desmond O’Rourke from Belrose, Inc., a noted expert on China, said that apple yields are improving in China, although their yields are still relatively low compared to the Western world. He said Chinese domestic consumption keeps growing along with per capita income that has tripled in the last 20 years. He predicted that Chinese exports of apple juice concentrate will continue to rise over the new few years.

New Zealand
The apple industry in New Zealand is in a state of chaos, according to David Nelley, from David Oppenhiemer & Co. in Vancouver , British Columbia. Nelley spoke at the outlook conference and told the audience that New Zealand’s production will likely decrease by 12-14 million cartons. According to USApple forecast, New Zealand’s production will be down to 524,905 metric tons, a decrease from 577,705 metric tons last year.

Canada
Canadian apple production for 2001 is forecast at 26.7 million bushels, a 6% decrease from 2000. McIntosh remains the dominant variety in Canada and is expected to decrease by 13% from 2000, according to USApple.

Tom O’Neill from the Norfolk Fruit Growers’ Association in Ontario, Canada told attendees at the outlook conference that Northern Spy is expected to increase by 27% and Gala and Empires are also expected to increase in production.

Ontario production is expected to decrease to 12 million bushels, British Columbia production down by 6.8 million bushels and Quebec down by five million bushels. Nova Scotia’s production is estimated at 2.6 million bushels, up 5% from 2000, while New Brunswick is expected to go up 2% to 298,000 bushels.

Mexico
Mexico is expected to produce 16.3 million bushels of apples this year up from 8.9 million bushels last year, according to Kelly Jones, from Paquime Nuevo Casas Grandes, Chihuahua, Mexico.

He told conference attendees that Mexico is experiencing warm weather. “We just don’t have the chill hours like we used to,” he said. Mexico has also experienced a lot of rain that has caused some spoiling of the crop. Six states in Mexico produce apples. Jones also reported that there is a shortage of storage facilities in Mexico and that 80% of apples from Mexico are for the fresh market and 20% for processing.