Apple Crop Down 5%
Associate Editor
click here to view PDF.
The nation’s apple crop will be lighter and more manageable than first thought, according to apple industry leaders at the United States Apple Association’s (USApple) 2000 Apple Crop Outlook and Marketing Conference held recently.
USApple predicted the total crop for the United States at 239 million bushels (42-pound units), a 6% decrease from USDA’s forecast of 254 million bushels. The USApple estimate would place the crop 5% below last year's crop of 252 million bushels.Washington state anticipates an 8% increase in apple production this year while other major apple producing states predict declines up to 22%, according to estimates made Aug. 17 and 18 at the conference in Chicago.
The 2000 crop would be the fifth largest if the USDA estimate of 254 million bushels is accurate. If the USApple estimate of 239 million bushels is accurate, it will be the smallest crop in 10 years. USApple reported that the 1999 crop, at 252 million bushels, was the seventh largest apple crop since the USDA started recording statistics on commercial apple production. The largest crop ever was 277.3 million bushels in 1998, a large crop remembered by its poor export markets and plummeting prices for juice apples.
China was on the minds of industry leaders at the conference. Kraig Naasz, president of USApple, reported on the results of the anti-dumping suit. In a discussion about it and the Chinese concentrate market, some questioned Naasz about the time spent on the suit and about the need to increase consumption. As China is now the world’s largest producer of apples, there is concern about China’s expected increase in exports of fresh apples as only 5-7% of their apples go for processing.
Another big subject was food retailer consolidation that has gradually shifted the balance of purchasing power in favor of large retailers.
“Already the apple industry has started to restructure, with further consolidation among grower and packer operations expected. This consolidation will not be limited to fresh market packers. Significant consolidation of apple processors has also occurred and is expected to continue,” said a USApple report.
Anthony Stokan, an internationally known marketer from Toronto, with a reputation as one of North American’s premiere trend commentators, said big versus specialized is one of the polarizations in business.
“By the end of the decade businesses will either be big major players or micro niche players,” he said. Stokan cited statistics on how huge some retailers such as Wal-Mart and Home Depot are getting. Home Depot is expected to capture over 50% of its market and Wal-Mart is doing $166 billion in business per year, well above the number-two in sales, Kroger, at $47 billion a year.
Micro niche businesses cater to the 5-7% of the population interested in paying top dollar for product such as premium fruits and vegetables, according to Stokan.
The emergence of e-commerce was also discussed at the conference as well as the relationship between retail apple prices and grower returns.
Crop Estimate
Fresh market varieties are expected to comprise more than 70% of the 2000 crop, increasing from 1999 due to greater production in the Northwestern states, according to USApple. Red and Golden Delicious continue to dominate varietal production nationally but newer varieties such as Fuji, Gala, Braeburn, Jonagold and Pink Lady are expected to challenge the superior position of those varieties, according to USApple.
Red Delicious production is expected to increase in the West by 16% but decrease 13% in the East and 22% in the Midwest.
Washington
Washington anticipates a full set of fruit from tips to trunk, according to Lindsay Buckner, Tree Top in Selah, Wash. He reported that there was some frost scattered in lower areas and post bloom was a little cooler and wetter than normal. Washington enjoyed excellent growing conditions in the summer.
“In the late summer we’ve seen higher temperatures throughout the state in the 90s and 100s with some sunburn mostly on Galas,” Buckner said. By mid-August harvest had started on Galas. The crop has slightly larger than normal sizing and harvest is five to 10 days ahead of last year depending on location, according to Buckner.
Washington anticipates a fresh crop estimate of more than 90 million boxes, an 11% increase over last year. Production of most varieties is expected to increase in Washington including 20% increases in Galas and Braeburns. Production of Red Delicious has decreased by almost 8.5 million boxes, as Washington continues to see an increase in new varieties for a stronger mix to market, Buckner reported.
He said that 5,000 to 10,000 acres of less productive varieties have been removed in Washington. With an abundance of high quality fruit, “it will be another challenging year for our industry,” Buckner said.
The USApple forecast for Washington is 128,000 million bushels, a 7% decrease from the USDA forecast of 138 million bushels. This would be an 8% increase from its 1999 crop of 119 million bushels and even with its five-year average.
New York
The USApple forecast for the crop in New York is 25 million bushels, a 17% decrease from 1999 and a 6% decrease from its five-year average. “The crop looks manageable. There’s been some devastating hail,” said David Sullivan, Champlain Valley Apple Storage, reporting on the New York crop. He said nearly 50% of the crop in the Hudson Valley has hail damage and fruit without hail damage is sizing well. The harvest in New York is three to five days early.
Michigan
Michigan representatives at the outlook conference adjusted USDA’s forecast upwards to 22.5 million bushels, an 18% increase from USDA’s estimate of 19 million. That would be a 22% decrease from 1999, which was a record crop, and 7.8% decrease from the five-year average.
Most varieties including Macintosh and Red Delicious are down somewhat, said Don Armock, Riveridge Produce Marketing. Harvest is normal or slightly ahead of normal and apple sizing is normal or above normal with color very good. The Michigan crop has suffered with some hail and extensive fire blight in southwest Michigan.
“There are whole generations of trees that will not be surviving principally in southwest Michigan,” said Armock.
California
The USApple forecast for California is 13,500 million boxes, 22% lower than USDA forecast for California of 17,381 million boxes. USApple forecast is 31% lower than 1999 and 36% lower than its five-year average of 21 million bushels.
“California continues to experience decline in acreage,” said Kenton Kidd from the California Apple Commission. Varieties such as Granny Smith and Pink Lady experienced declines, according to Kidd. He said most varieties are coloring well and California experienced nice bloom on time and then a lot of rain. “It’s a cleaner crop, just not a larger crop,” said Kidd.
Pennsylvania
The USApple forecast for Pennsylvania is 11 million boxes, a reduction of 429,000 boxes from the USDA estimate. Pennsylvania is expected to be down 9% from 1999’s crop of 12 million boxes and even with its five-year average of 11 million.
The Fruit Growers News website offers a sampling of articles and features from each month. Subscribe to get all the news offered in The Fruit Growers News delivered right to you home!
Permission is granted for reprinting material, except for commercial or advertising purposes, provided The Fruit Growers News is given full credit.
- Copyright 2000 Great American Publishing, Inc.
- The Fruit Growers News
- 343 South Union Street - PO Box 128 - Sparta, MI 49345
- Phone 616-887-9008 - Fax 616-887-2666 - email
- All Rights Reserved
- The Fruit Growers News