Estimators Foresee Lower Tart Cherry, Higher Apple Crop for U.S.
By Lee Dean
Managing Editor

The long-term tart cherry supply and demand situation could improve again this season, if figures presented at the Michigan Frozen Food Packers Association’s Annual Fruit Crop Guesstimate come to pass.

Official USDA figures unveiled the morning of June 22 predict a national tart cherry crop of 245.4 million pounds, almost 10 million pounds lower than the 1999 total. If this estimate comes to pass, the crop will be the smallest in the U.S. since 1991, when 190 million pounds were produced. The guesstimate’s own tart cherry report, taken from observations in all growing regions of the nation, resulted in an even lower figure of 228 million pounds predicted.

Last year, for the first time since the implementation of the tart cherry federal marketing order, the estimated crop was low enough to allow all cherries to enter the open market. The same thing could happen this year, although FMO procedures must still play their course.

Michigan retains its wide margin as the top tart cherry growing state. The USDA estimates growers there will produce 165 million pounds. Within the state, the northwest is projected to grow 90 million pounds, the westcentral 57 million and the “southwest and other” regions 18 million. After Michigan, Utah will grow the most cherries, at 30 million pounds.

The national U.S. apple guesstimate, presented by Mark Arney, executive secretary of the Michigan Apple Committee, is for a crop of 272 million bushels, which would be an increase over the 255.7 million bushels grown last season.

Washington will top all other states in apple production, with an estimated monster crop of 153 million bushels. New York was placed second with 25 million bushels, Michigan third and California fourth at 18 million. The Michigan total is sure to be reduced in the aftermath of a severe fire blight outbreak this spring and hail damage that has affected 40-45% of the acreage the southwest portion of the state.

Michigan’s mainstay variety remains Red Delicious, with an estimated 4.4 million bushels to be produced this season. Idared is second at 2.97 million bushels, Jonathan third at 2.92 million, Rome fourth at 2.56 million, and Golden Delicious fifth at 2.1 million. McIntosh and Northern Spy will again surpass the million-bushel mark. Gala is going to need a category of its own because of ever-increasing yields as trees come into maturity,

As blueberry growers await the results of a national referendum to create a generic marketing and research program, they can look forward to smaller crops from Michigan and Indiana. This year’s estimated Michigan crop is 52.5 million pounds, which would be down from last year’s 65 million pounds. Indiana growers are slated to produce 2.5 million pounds, slightly lower than last year’s figure of 2.8 million pounds.

“Last year, we had the largest crop in history,” said Kirk McCreary, general manager of MBG Marketing of last year’s North American total of 342.7 million pounds. This figure includes both cultivated and lowbush fruit. “But we also saw strong demand, and much of that was due to the attention blueberries received as being a healthy fruit.”

Total consumption of blueberries increased in 1999 to 338.5 million pounds, maintaining a trend that began in 1997 when 299.3 million pounds were consumed, and 1998 (319.6 million).

The USDA forecast for total sweet cherry production in the U.S. is 224.400 tons, nearly identical to the 1999 final production figure of 224.700 tons. The leading growing state in the country is expected to be California, at 73,000 tons. Washington is predicted to come in second at 68,000 tons and Oregon third at 50,000 tons.

The Michigan sweet cherry crop is estimated to be sharply lower than the previous season’s total of 54 million pounds. This season’ estimate of 37.8 million pounds includes 27 million going for brine, 5,5 million for canned and 3.4 million for frozen. An additional 1.9 million pounds are destined for the fresh market.

Michigan’s estimated 2000 production of Concord grapes for processing was set at 61,000 tons, up from 1999’s production of 57,300. The state ranked fourth last year, behind Washington, New York and Pennsylvania. Last year’s national crop was 479,665 tons, above the nine-year average of 433,008 tons.

One crop made its reporting debuts at this year’s guesstimate. A clingstone peach report was added, with plums and strawberries dropped. Michigan peach growers are projected to produce 8,350 tons of the national total of 570,700 tons. Both figures would be slightly above 1999 production.

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